COVID's Origins - What We Do and Don’t Know

Researchers summarize key insights from the world’s first comprehensive investigation into how a pandemic started.

Marietjie Venter et al, February 2026 (Commentary, History)

Main points…

1) Hypothesis One: Animals infected with SARS-CoV-2 passed the virus to humans. Most of the peer-reviewed scientific evidence supports this hypothesis.

2) Hypothesis Two: SARS-CoV-2 was introduced into China’s animal markets from overseas through imported goods. In April last year, the Chinese government endorsed this route as the most likely source of SARS-CoV-2. But almost six years on from the start of the pandemic, we conclude that the available scientific evidence does not support this hypothesis.

3) Hypothesis Three: SARS-CoV-2 originated from an accidental lab-related event. Much of the information needed to assess this hypothesis has not been made available to the WHO or SAGO.

4) Hypothesis Four: SARS-CoV-2 originated from the deliberate manipulation of a virus in a lab. We did not find evidence to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 resulting from experimental manipulation was a more likely scenario than it emerging from naturally occurring mutations or recombination events.

Bottom Line: Overall, perhaps the most important message to emerge from SAGO’s first term is that only rigorous scientific research, not conjecture or political opinion, will help to solve the mystery of where a virus estimated to have killed more than 20 million people by the end of 2022, and which cost the global economy up to $16 trillion, came from. If the world truly wants answers, it must deliver the information and data that make rigorous scientific research possible.

In other words… It is IMPOSSIBLE to say with certainty where/when COIVD started. IMO, anyone who speaks with certainty is uninformed (most of us) or lying (GOP Senators) at recent their recent hearings.

Original Nature.com Article (Feb 2026)